Predicting results is a favourite past time for sport fans. Everyone thinks they know best when it comes to forecasting victories or defeats. Sometimes the heart rules the head and othertimes it's the opposite.
In a not-too-serious effort to join the debate, we at Cardiff RFC Fans have developed an algorithm designed to forecast results. It utilises the current data in our data base:-
- 14994 match results
- 428 referee profiles
Leaning heavily on the work done by Rugby Numbers and Rugby Vision this algorithm is comprised of three seperate elements - the defensive and attacking records of the home and away teams over the past 'x' games (weighted by the relative strenght or weakness of the opposition) and the relative propensity of the referee to favour home teams with his decisions.
We're now in our third season of forecasting. During the 2017-18 season we recorded a 70.23% accuracy. Forecasting a home victory in every game would have yielded a 63.33% accuracy. In 2018-19, there was a slight dip in accuracy, falling just below 70%.
For this season's results, check out the following:-